Analysis of the Threats of Strategic Surprises in the Form of National Energy Crisis

Abstract: The objectives of research are: 1.To identify aspects, components and indicators of National Energy Security (KEN); 2. To formulate KEN Index; 3. To measure the current and the future KEN Index (2015, 2020, 2025); 4. To identify potential strategic surprises in the form of national energy crisis and 5. To analyze what kind of intelligence solutions need to be done by the government. Theories used are: Grabo's Warning Intelligence theory, Handel's Strategic Surprise theory, and also using several analysis' tools, such as: trend analysis, pattern analysis, and anticipatory analysis. For energy resilience calculation, it adopted aspects from Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC) with component and indicator references from World Energy Council, Energy Resources Technology Development Center-BPPT, and The National Resilience Institute (LEMHANAS). The result of this research are : 1.KEN Index consists of 4 aspects, 9 components and 15 indicators; 2. KEN Index formula is as follow: KEN= 0.39 (Availability) + 0.23 (Affordability) + 0.23 (Accessibility) + 0.15 (Acceptability); 3.Current KEN condition is in susceptible condition, similarly in 2015,2020 and 2025; 4.Indonesia has a potential occurrence of National Energy Crisis' Strategic Surprising Attack, which can cause economic, social and political instability, which in the end will offend Indonesia's security stability; and 5. Intelligence solutions to anticipate strategic surprising attack not to happen are based on 4 scenarios.